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Analisi a 500 hpa

© Wetterzentrale, 1995 - 2011

Umidità relativa a 700 hpa

© Wetterzentrale, 1995 - 2011

Analisi a 850 hpa

© Wetterzentrale, 1995 - 2011

Spaghi a 850 hpa

© Wetterzentrale, 1995 - 2012

Come leggere il grafico

Il grafico Ensemble
Si costruisce sovrapponendo 20 possibili evoluzioni partendo da condizioni iniziali opportunamente variate, simulando quindi tutti i possibili comportamenti dell'atmosfera.
Tanto più vicino sarà il fascio delle linee (dette spaghetti) tanto più affidabile sarà la previsione anche fino a 15gg.
E' semplice notare infatti che l'attendibilità nel breve temine è molto elevata e questo viene testimoniato dal fascio di linee tutte sovrapposte e coerenti tra loro.
Nel momento in cui si analizza un periodo di lungo termine si può notare come gli "spaghetti" tendano ad "aprirsi" evidenziando una perdita di attendibilità e di coerenza.
La linea grigia in ogni caso rappresentando la media di tutte le possibili evoluzioni è considerata tendenza più affidabile.

La linea grigia => rappresenta la media delle possibili evoluzioni

La linea rossa => rappresenta la media del passato su scala trentennale

Contenuti del grafico

Nella parte alta del grafico è analizzato l'andamento delle temperature a 1500 m , fondamentale per l'evoluzione a lungo termine. Nella parte bassa del grafico, invece, ci sono le piogge in mm.

Struttura del grafico

Nella parte sulla sinistra è implementata la scala delle temperature a 1500 m in °C.

In basso sono riportati i giorni di previsione.

Sulla destra si trova la scala delle piogge in mm.

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